motorcycle risk

[Nails]

I'm not a fanatic about motorcycle safety, but I stumbled on this chart in a recent NYT article (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/upsh ... lists.html). This article is about pedestrian and bicycle safety, not motorcycles. But the chart speaks for itself.

I know motorcycles are unsafe. What I didn't know is how much that has changed in these last few decades. The image caption suggests this is from increased motorcycle registrations, but I've seen articles saying that the motorcycle industry is on the rocks because of few young folks coming in. I don't get it.

[cushman eagle]

Yes Nails,I know there is risk in all of life
My father was an avid motorcyclist ,and died of pulmonary embolism in his sleep,
I had a brother,who also was a biker,and while test driving a car at work was t-boned by a drunk,and was killed almost instantly.
We will all meet our Maker,and need to be ready,and enjoy life,instead of worrying,just trusting Him.

[Nails]

I'm hip to the danger-danger.

But why did m/c suddenly become so much more deadly? Heck, 2000 was just after I completely quit motocrossing; and exactly when I sold my '75 GW to make a house down payment. I didn't even have a bike for the entire upslope on that death curve -- I was just MTBing that whole time until I got a d/s in 2012.

What's up with that? What'd I miss?

[GrandpaDenny]

I'm hip to the danger-danger.

But why did m/c suddenly become so much more deadly? Heck, 2000 was just after I completely quit motocrossing; and exactly when I sold my '75 GW to make a house down payment. I didn't even have a bike for the entire upslope on that death curve -- I was just MTBing that whole time until I got a d/s in 2012.

What's up with that? What'd I miss?

The proliferation of squids on sport bikes, perhaps?

[Conrad]

Squids sure don't help, not to mention dealers willing to sell a 600cc sportbike to a 19 year old with no riding experience. I know a guy who walked into a dealership at 20 years old in 1995 or so, no riding experience whatsoever, and left with a ninja. Luckily he never became a statistic, but that's a lot of bike for a kid who never even rode a moped.

[Nails]

Every rider was once a noob. Maybe bikes became more affordable to kids; but I have trouble finding a 140% increased death rate there. Especially since modern bikes are supposed to be safer.

[GrandpaDenny]

Every rider was once a noob. Maybe bikes became more affordable to kids; but I have trouble finding a 140% increased death rate there. Especially since modern bikes are supposed to be safer.

A couple of years ago Total Control taught that motorcyclists were 28 times as likely to die in a crash as an automobile driver. Now it's up to 38x. I don't know about modern bikes being any safer - I mean, yeah, they have traction control and ABS and linked brakes etc etc. etc but idiots are idiots regardless of what they're riding. I'm not talking about noobs, I'm talking about just plain idiots.

Motorcycle safety classes are free here in PA for PA residents. Demand for classes was very high this year, and staffing is short. However, comma, all the best training in the world doesn't do a bit of good if it isn't applied.

Besides idiots on sport bikes - and idiots on any kind of bike for that matter, there's the guys who take all the lights off of their all-black, blacked-out motorcycle, wear all black, no armored gear, half-helmets (or none) (also black, of course) and complain about getting run over by the cage who "didn't give them the right of way" or "didn't see them". Some people will rather be cool than safe regardless of the danger. Some people push the envelope looking for thrills (and I can't say too much about that, I'm the gray and white streak going down Lincoln Drive (25mph speed limit) at 70+ mph because it's fun and exhilarating and exciting and, yes, dangerous. i don't do that in heavy traffic, though, only when the road is clear, and dry, and traffic is light and nowhere around me. The funniest part about that is I occasionally get my doors blown off by a Kia Sportage. LOL. Some day I would like to meet that driver. I can't keep up with her!

Having said that, remember that by far the majority of motorcycle accidents are single-vehicle accidents. By far. Riders going faster than their skills - running wide in corners, not having sufficient skills at emergency braking or countersteering or swerving. Mostly running wide in corners. What causes running wide in corners? Excessive speed. Excessive speed in this case being defined as excessive for that rider's equipment, skill level, and road conditions.

Riding a motorcycle is dangerous. Yep. Sure is. </soapbox>

[Nails]

I still don't get how failure to apply safety training is worse than not knowing about safety in the first place. Maybe overconfidence in rider aids and gear? Maybe a shift toward daily riding on "practical" bikes? (I don't think there really was much of a shift.) Maybe a general increase in aggression on the roads, m/c being the short straw?

It's still a mystery to me what changed. I remember mostly the photos in Dr. Hurt's groundbreaking study of things like nails instead of cotter pins on the axle nuts (a prevalence of ratty bike maintenance -- his study involved examining crash scenes). This was when the popular myth was "laying the bike down" when you really just fell over. IIRC, m/c fatality in the good old days was only about 2-3X as likely as cage fatality, presumably attributed to increased ability to evade other people's stupidity and crashes. (Maybe "situational awareness" isn't enough anymore, for some reason, on today's roads?)

Dunno. From the perspective of my seat, things don't look 140% worse now than before I took that riding hiatus in 2000.

It is what it is (assuming the article is accurate in the first place) -- another of Life's great mysteries.

[GrandpaDenny]

What may be another contributor to the rise in motorcycle fatalities since 2000 is... wait for it... first, a question: what started to become commonplace in the '00s that hardly existed before, and could possibly contribute to distracted drivers? Correct! Cellphones!

This, however, doesn't contribute to the 70% plus of motorcycle accidents being single-vehicle (motorcycle only) accidents. Bad roads? Sure, but that can be dealt with by slowing down. Wet roads? Yep, slowing down helps with that. Anyway, my point is that I believe the single largest reason for the rise in motorcycle fatalities is the motorcyclist.

[Nails]

Anyway, my point is that I believe the single largest reason for the rise in motorcycle fatalities is the motorcyclist.

Certainly the single largest reason for motorcycle fatalities. I started this thread in hopes of increasing some mindfulness in at least myself. When I bought my XII, I still thought m/c risk was where I left it 20 years earlier.

Be careful out there. Last year’s Flagstaff rally is a case in point.

[Conrad]

I know, at least in my area, the number of "bar hopper" harleys, by many youngish riders, has gone up quite a bit since the mid 90s. Drinking and riding doesn't help.

[VoyKimmer]

In my area most motorcycle crashes are not from alcohol but the kids racing down the tollway at well over 100 and even reaching 200 in there Hayabusa‘s and such. My lady’s son is one of them but doesn’t listen of course. They think they know everything and I’m just a grumpy old man that knows nothing. God help them.

[GrandpaDenny]

We get packs - gangs - of young kids (and sometimes adults) on sportbikes, ATVs, dirtbikes, you name it roaming around in packs blocking intersections, running red lights, popping wheelies at random, etc. One evening I was watching a bunch of these yahoos creating mayhem in Center City (that means downtown to non-Philadelphians) and one car had had enough and just pulled out and ran right over one of them. Crunch. Splat.

We get packs of smaller kids doing the same thing on their bicycles, too.